Kalain Hosein

The 2021 Dry Season has officially started.

Compared to average dry-seasons and last year’s record-breaking dry-season, the 2021 Dry Season is likely to produce more rainfall overall over most areas, but a lot of dryness is still likely. Localized rainfall events are likely to push the monthly rainfall totals to above average from just a few rainy days during the month.

After considering waning rainfall rates, the absence of typical wet-season weather systems, and the increasing presence of dry season weather and climatic features, the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service declared the 2021 Dry Season has started.

The season is being ushered in by slightly cooler temperatures, lower relative humidity levels, and much stronger lower-level wind speeds. This is due, in part, to an enhanced North Atlantic Sub-Tropical High (NASH) pressure system that has shifted its center further eastward, extended its reaches southward and to a greater depth, compared to two to three weeks ago. The shifting and strengthening of the NASH in recent weeks have also led, at times, to an enhanced trade wind inversion and at other times to the presence of subsidence inversions. Together, these features have acted as suppressors of significant rain-bearing cloud development and are typical region indicators having transitioned to its drier state.

What to expect

A less dry than average dry season is favored across Trinidad and Tobago. The country can expect rainfall to be more localized generally, but some moderate to heavy rainfall events after several days of dryness can push the monthly rainfall totals to above-average totals in just a few rain days. Above-average rainfall accumulations in the dry season often do not mean plenty of rainfall.

Meanwhile, the odds are tilted towards the country experiencing a warmer than average dry season. Still, some nights will be chilly in the first two months of the season, as relatively colder air is likely to funnel and encroach into the region due to the sub-tropical high-pressure system’s location and migrating weather systems from colder latitudes. The months of April and May are likely to produce one or two short-duration hot spells.